Why daily, not real-time?
Because macro signals don't move tick-by-tick. Credit spreads, Treasury yields, and Fed liquidity data are published end-of-day by official sources (FRED, the Fed, ICE). The fastest legitimate free data is what you see here.
More importantly: regime classification works on daily closes, not intra-day noise. Howard Marks doesn't change his market view because credit spreads moved 2bp at 11:43am. Daily data is the right cadence for the question "what regime are we in?"
The live markets strip at the bottom shows real-time prices for context — but those don't feed the regime engine. Read the methodology →
Macro Dashboard
Credit spreads
The price of risk in corporate bond markets. Wider spreads = more stress.
New here? Bonds vs credit spreads — what's the difference?
A bond is an actual IOU you can buy — Apple issues bonds, the US Treasury issues bonds. A credit spread is a calculation: take a corporate bond's yield, subtract the matching Treasury yield, and the gap is the spread.
Example: if a 10-year Treasury yields 4.36% and Apple's 10-year bond yields 5.17%, then Apple's credit spread = 0.81%. That's the extra return investors demand for taking on Apple's credit risk.
So when the dashboard shows HY OAS 2.85% — that's not a bond price. It's the average gap between high-yield corporate bonds and Treasuries. Think of it as a thermometer reading, not the patient.
Rates
Treasury yields across maturities. The shape of the curve signals market expectations.
Liquidity
How much money is actually flowing through the financial system after parking accounts.
Vol & FX
Equity volatility (VIX) and the dollar (DXY) provide context for the credit and rates picture.
Macro headlines
Today's policy moves and data releases — scored for macro relevance. Click any item to read the source.
What am I looking at?
Real-time price strip for context while you read the macro picture above. These prices don't feed the regime engine — that runs on FRED daily-close data published overnight. This strip exists so you can see if anything's moving sharply right now.
Why these symbols?
- HYG · iShares High Yield Bond ETF. When it falls sharply, junk-bond credit stress is rising — often before tomorrow's official spread reading reflects it.
- LQD · iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF. The IG cousin to HYG. Drops here flag broader corporate credit stress.
- VIX · The "fear gauge." Equity options traders' implied 30-day volatility. Spikes signal panic.
- DXY · Classic 6-currency US Dollar Index. Strong dollar = risk-off, weak dollar = risk-on.
- S&P 500 · Broad equity tape. The most-watched macro thermometer.
- Nasdaq 100 · Tech-heavy growth proxy. Often leads broader equities at turning points.
- BTC · 24/7 risk-on/off signal that trades through weekends. First to react to global macro shifts.
- Gold · The classic safety hedge. Rises during stress, especially when real rates fall.
Equities and VIX are delayed 15 minutes during US market hours. Crypto, FX, and gold are live.